Oscars 2019 Predictions: Who Should Win And Who Will Win

Happy Oscar Sunday! For one day a year, it’s time for film nerds like me to geek out and watch 3+ hours dedicated to honoring the past year in movies. No more introductions. Here are my selections as to who should win and who will win.

Best Picture

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

In an unpredictable year, the race for Best Picture has been fascinating to watch throughout awards season. If you were to ask me in October, A Star Is Born was the clear favorite. Then, A Star Is Born fell to the back of the pack. Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody picked up major steam at the Golden Globes. Recently, Roma picked up the Best Picture win at the BAFTAs. This race is going to come down to two films, Green Book and Roma, and the preferential ballot. I encourage you to read how the preferential ballot works. In simplest terms, preferential balloting is when voters rank all the nominees from 1 to 8. If a film receives more than 50% of the vote, then that’s winner. That’s not going to happen the first time. Whichever film receives the fewest votes is eliminated, and those who ranked that eliminated film first have their second pick moved up to first.

Example: Let’s say my ballot has A Star Is Born at #1 and Black Panther at #2. If A Star Is Born is eliminated, then my first place vote now goes to Black Panther. My #2 becomes a first place vote. This process of eliminating films and redistributing votes will continue until one film has over 50% of the votes.

Roma and Green Book will be towards the top of a lot of ballots. Roma is the betting favorite as of now, but Green Book won’t go away. Despite all of the controversies surrounding Green Book, the film continued to win major awards at big shows. I’ve been going back and forth on this for awhile. Is the Academy ready to give Netflix a Best Picture award? Gun to my head, I say no. I want to zero in on Green Book’s Producer’s Guild win for Best Theatrical Motion Picture. Since 2007, the winner of this award went on to win Best Picture 9 of the last 11 times. All of the odds say to pick Roma, but my gut is telling me to pick Green Book. 

Oh by the way, A Star Is Born would get my vote. There’s not even a close second for me.

Who Should Win: A Star Is Born

Who Will Win: Green Book

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

The winner is Glenn Close, THE WIFE *Borat voice*

This is Glenn Close’s seventh Oscar nomination. Close is a legendary actress, but up until now, she has never won an Oscar. This is a lifetime achievement Oscar. I have nothing against Close winning an Oscar. Close wouldn’t be my pick here, but there’s no scenario where she doesn’t win on Sunday. To her credit, Close has been nailing her speeches all awards season.

Who Should Win: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Who Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Rami Malek is a stone cold lock. That being said, how can you look Bradley Cooper in the eyes and say that Rami Malek was better than him? How? You can’t do it. I like Rami Malek a lot, but I’m baffled as to why he’s been such an overwhelming favorite all awards season. I can’t say enough about Bradley Cooper’s performance. Cooper sang his own songs, learned guitar / piano, and gave his entire heart and soul to A Star Is Born. Bohemian Rhapsody barely used Malek’s voice and the film has been plagued with problems thanks to Bryan Singer’s exit. Plus, A Star Is Born is just a better movie than Bohemian Rhapsody. Bradley, I want to apologize on behalf of the Academy for not awarding you with this Oscar.

Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Who Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

The biggest lock of the night is Mahershala Ali in supporting category. I like Mahershala a lot so I have no problems handing him another Oscar.

Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Why wasn’t If Beale Street Could Talk nominated for Best Picture? That’s a mistake. This race is very interesting. King won the Golden Globe in this category, but she lost at the SAGs and did not receive a nomination at the BAFTAs. Weisz has built some serious momentum in the past few weeks thanks to her win at the BAFTAs. If you’re betting and want to bet on a long shot to win money, bet Weisz. However, I’m pulling for King. King’s scenes in Puerto Rico were so heartbreaking and gut-wrenching. King won the movie and will win the Oscar.

Who Should Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Who Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Director

BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee
Cold War, Pawel Pawlikowski
The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Alfonso Cuarón will win. That is all.

Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters

This race is extremely close. Last week, I would have picked If Beale Street Could Talk or BlacKkKlansman. However, Can You Ever Forgive Me? came out of nowhere to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Writer’s Guild of America Awards. Spike Lee has never won an Oscar for one of his films. (Lee won an honorary Oscar in 2015.) It’s time to reward Lee with an Oscar for his achievements.

Who Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins

Who Will Win: BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

The Favourite was tied with Roma for the most nominations in the field. They have to win something, right? The Favourite has been the favorite (lol, lame pun) in this category, but keep an eye on Green Book. If Green Book wins this category, they are going to win Best Picture. I’ll stick with The Favourite winning…for now.

Who Should Win: Roma

Who Will Win: The Favourite

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War, Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick
Christopher Robin, Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, and Chris Corbould
First Man, Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, and J.D. Schwalm
Ready Player One, Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, and David Shirk
Solo: A Star Wars Story, Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, and Dominic Tuohy

Who Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Who Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Border, Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
Mary Queen of Scots, Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, and Jessica Brooks
Vice, Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, and Patricia Dehaney

Who Should Win: Vice

Who Will Win: Vice

Best Animated Short Film

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

When in doubt, trust Pixar. Bao aired before The Incredibles 2 so that’s the move.

Who Should Win: Bao

Who Will Win: Bao

Best Live Action Short

Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

From what I’ve read, these are all super depressing so I have a lot to look forward to when I finally watch them!

Who Should Win: Marguerite

Who Will Win: Marguerite

Best Documentary Short

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Who Should Win: Black Sheep

Who Will Win: Black Sheep

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther, Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, and Peter Devlin
Bohemian Rhapsody, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, and John Casali
First Man, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, and Mary H. Ellis
Roma, Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, and José Antonio Gracía
A Star Is Born, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, and Steve Morrow

Do you side with the musical films or the one about space? This is what I’ll say about First Man.

I will be pulling for First Man, but the pick is Bohemian Rhapsody thanks to its win at the Cinema Audio Society Awards for Sound Mixing.

Who Should Win: First Man

Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay

This is another category where Bohemian Rhapsody will be a slight favorite, but this award should and will go to A Quiet Place. Sound was the main character of the film! It should be rewarded, but I would not mind if First Man won here as well.

Who Should Win: A Quiet Place

Who Will Win: A Quiet Place

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

The technical categories are brutal to predict this year. This race is between The Favourite and Black Panther. Sandy Powell is a well-oiled machine who has been nominated for 14 (!!!) Oscars. The Favourite is a costume drama so the outfits were on point, but I would like to see Black Panther rewarded in at least one category so I will be rooting for Marvel.

Who Should Win: Black Panther

Who Will Win: The Favourite

Best Production Design

Black Panther, Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
First Man, Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre and Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez

Another close race between Black Panther and The Favourite. Just like costume design, I’m pulling for Wakanda in this category, but The Favourite will win.

Who Should Win: Black Panther

Who Will Win: The Favourite 

Best Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
Vice, Hank Corwin

It’s worth noting that the winner of sound mixing has also won film editing in each of the past five years. With Bohemian Rhapsody winning sound mixing, I will pick them to win here as well, but look out for Vice, which won the BAFTA award in this same category.

Who Should Win: Vice

Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Cinematography

Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Shoutout to cinematographers. They are so important to the success of a film that I’m happy they will have their category announced live on the broadcast. Alfonso Cuarón is going to be walking onstage multiple times so get used to seeing his face a lot. Roma for the win.

Who Should Win: Roma

Who Will Win: Roma

Best Original Score

Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman

I have no idea as to why First Man and A Star Is Born were snubbed in this category. Ludwig Goransson is having an unbelievable month as he’s coming off huge Grammy wins for “This Is America” and Black Panther. However, Barry Jenkins has found a winning composer in Nicholas Britell. A beautiful film with a wonderful score win this category.

Who Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Who Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Original Song

“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

I mean…

Who Should Win: “Shallow”

Who Will Win: “Shallow”

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

This was such a strong year for documentaries. Won’t You Be My Neighbor and Three Identical Strangers were two of the most critically acclaimed and financially successful documentaries of the year and neither were recognized in this category. For the first time in my life, I would be quite content with a tie between Free Solo and Minding the Gap, two spectacular movies in their own way. If I have to choose one, I’m siding with Free Solo. Visually breathtaking, Free Solo was full of inspiration and edge-of-your-seat drama despite knowing how the film ends.

Who Should Win: Free Solo 

Who Will Win: Free Solo 

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum, Lebanon
Cold War, Poland
Never Look Away, Germany
Roma, Mexico
Shoplifters, Japan

Roma. No doubt about it.

Who Should Win: Roma

Who Will Win: Roma

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Confession: I rarely see animated films. It’s not that I don’t like them. I just don’t make the time for them. That’s a huge mistake by me and I’m fully aware of it. I’m choosing the film that most critics want to win, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Plus, I enjoy the song “Sunflower.”

Who Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Tweet me your predictions @danny_giro.