I love the Golden Globes. It’s my favorite awards show by far. For starters, it honors both film and television. More importantly, it’s a huge shitshow. Everyone drinks like it’s their last night on Earth and the mood in the room is very joyful. Plus, it provides a somewhat decent barometer for how the Oscars are going to pan out. Notice how I said “decent” because the Globes are not the be all, end all for Oscar predictions. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (organization who votes for the winners) tends to be unpredictable at times. Just look at last year. The Shape of Water won only two Golden Globes with none of them being for Best Picture. Fast forward to the Oscars and The Shape of Water takes home the top prize of Best Picture.
For this article, I’m covering the film categories. There’s no need for more introductions. It’s prediction time. Here are the actors / actress and films who I believe should win the Golden Globe and who will win the Golden Globe in each category.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
This is going to be a huge night for A Star Is Born. I don’t see it losing in most categories. The film lived up to the gigantic amount of hype surrounding it coming into the year. Bradley Cooper could not have had a better directorial debut and his chemistry with Lady Gaga was tremendous. A Star Is Born was the perfect homage to a classic Hollywood film with music, love, and legitimate, believable superstars. The road to the Oscars begins now. Plus, for prediction purposes, A Star Is Born‘s biggest competition (The Favourite, Green Book, Roma) is not in this category.
Who Should Win: A Star Is Born
Who Will Win: A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
This is a tough category to predict. Vice led the field with 6 nominations overall. Green Book picked up huge wins at TIFF and with the National Board of Review. The Favourite made its way to many top 10 lists and the trio of Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, and Emma Stone have received acting nominations in almost every awards show. It would not surprise me if any of these three win the top prize. Green Book should win this for its crowd pleasing story, but a film that leads the field in nominations usually does not go home empty-handed. Vice wins.
Who Should Win: Green Book
Who Will Win: Vice
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Lady. Gaga. There’s really nothing else to say. When the lights were brightest and all the attention was on her acting debut, Gaga delivered. I’m sorry, Glenn Close.
Who Should Win: Lady Gaga
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
I have A Star Is Born fever and so does the HFPA. Cooper gave a tour de force performance as the aging country musician who battles with alcoholism and depression. Cooper’s performance was one of the best I saw all year. The best is yet to come for Cooper. If I have one concern, it’s that Rami Malek is slowly creeping his way to the top in terms of odds on sites like Goldderby.
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
The Musical / Comedy section is much more difficult to predict than the drama section. If I were voting, Elsie Fisher has my vote for Eighth Grade. Unfortunately, this is a two-way race between Emily Blunt and Olivia Colman. Colman’s performance may be more critically acclaimed, but I have a feeling voters are going to sway on the side of mass appeal, which would easily be Blunt as the iconic Mary Poppins. Blunt caps off a huge year with her second career Golden Globe.
Who Should Win: Olivia Colman
Who Will Win: Emily Blunt
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
A race between two actors who gained a lot of weight.
Christian Bale as Dick Cheney.
Viggo Mortenson as Tony Lip
I enjoyed Mortenson’s performance as a tough-nosed Italian bouncer, but Bale was Dick Cheney’s clone. Bale nailed everything about Cheney from his physical appearance to his mannerisms. This is his award.
Who Should Win: Christian Bale
Who Will Win: Christian Bale
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Remember when I said that the Golden Globes can be unpredictable? This is a category where I could see the HFPA going against the grain. Regina King should win this award. Regina King should probably win the Oscar as well. However, I keep circling back to Vice because it led the field in nominations. Amy Adams was good in Vice, but it was nowhere near King’s performance in If Beale Street Could Talk. This reminds me of 2016 when Aaron Taylor-Johnson upset Mahershala Ali for supporting actor. However, Ali went home with the Oscar several weeks later. I believe that exact scenario is going to happen.
Who Should Win: Regina King
Who Will Win: Amy Adams
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Can Mahershala win two Oscars in the last three years? Before that happens, Ali will look to win a Golden Globe for the first time ever. As I mentioned before, Ali lost at the Globes a few years ago for his performance in Moonlight. Sam Rockwell has an outside chance for his hilarious turn as George W. Bush in Vice, but the Golden Globes will make up for their mistake from 2016 by rewarding Ali with the hardware.
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Best Director – Motion Picture
Any other year and Bradley Cooper takes home this prize. However, Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma has been described as a “masterpiece” from many critics. The black-and-white tribute to Cuarón’s childhood in Mexico City will be an unstoppable force in directing categories this awards season, and rightfully so.
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Unlike the Oscars where screenplays fall into two categories, the Globes condense screenplays into one category. Your guess is as good as mine in this category because all five have a chance to win. Adam McKay is a solid choice, but my money is on Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara for their surprisingly funny, strange, and ridiculous screenplay for The Favourite.
Who Should Win: The Favourite
Who Will Win: The Favourite
Best Picture – Animated
If you asked me over the summer who would win, I would’ve said this category would go to The Incredibles 2 in a landslide. Now, I’m not so sure with the skyrocketing surge of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. However, the smart bet is Pixar. From 2006-2017, 10 Pixar films have been nominated for Best Picture – Animated at the Golden Globes. 8 of those films won the award (2 Pixar films were nominated in 2015).
Who Should Win: The Incredibles 2
Who Will Win: The Incredibles 2
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Who Should Win: Roma
Who Will Win: Roma
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Out of all the films this year, five years from now, First Man is the film that people will look back at and say, “We messed up big time.” First Man faded into oblivion throughout the fall season despite being a very good film. Justin Hurwitz is becoming one of the best composers in all of Hollywood. Hurwitz will win this award and I have no problems with that selection. However, when sound is the main character and it’s treated masterfully onscreen, your film deserves to win an award CC: A Quiet Place.
Who Should Win: A Quiet Place
Who Will Win: First Man
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Just use your head on this one.
Who Should Win: “Shallow”
Who Will Win: “Shallow”
Tune in Sunday Night! I’ll be active on Twitter @danny_giro so follow along!